Memecoins Outperform as Bitcoin Lags Behind in Early October

GM Anon!

Here we are again: another week, another dip for BTC, despite mostly positive macroeconomic data (aside from the uncertainties surrounding global conflicts). BTC continues to struggle, unable to push into the high $60K range or break past $70K as many had hoped for "Uptober." While the start of October has been underwhelming, the month isn't over yet, and there's still time for momentum to shift.

Additionally, it seems that the usual correlation between crypto, gold, and stocks has weakened, with gold and equities performing well while BTC lags behind. Let's see what the rest of October has in store.

Despite the recent BTC dip, there are always opportunities in the market! Have you joined The Coiners for free yet? Check one of the latest user win posts

Without further ado, let's dive into today's updates!

TLDR

• BTC is struggling to break $70K, despite positive macro data; "Uptober" is off to a slow start

• Correlation between BTC, gold, and stocks has weakened; traditional assets outperform crypto

• Recent US inflation data was mixed, suggesting limited room for aggressive Fed rate cuts

• Memecoins are the top-performing sector, with MOODENG, SIGMA, and MINI leading gains

• Privacy coins like ZEC and XMR surged amid regulatory concerns, showing renewed interest

• Layer-1/2 protocols (SUI, AVAX, SOL) saw gains, highlighting infrastructure activity

Macro

This week, the latest US inflation data revealed a complex picture for September. The CPI increased by 2.4% compared to last year, which is a slight decrease from August's 2.5%, but still above market expectations of 2.3%. On a monthly basis, the CPI grew by 0.2%, while the core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, rose by 3.3% year-over-year, exceeding the projected 3.2%. These numbers suggest that while headline inflation showed signs of cooling, underlying price pressures remain steady​.

The PPI, reported on October 11, came in stronger than anticipated with a 1.8% annual increase, above the forecast of 1.6%, and a 0.1% monthly rise in the core PPI. This indicates that the cost pressures on producers persist, which may contribute to inflation in the months ahead​. The inflation data suggests the FED is less likely to pursue aggressive rate cuts, with current expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point cut rather than a larger reduction.

Majors

Over the past week, major cryptos showed modest gains: BTC rose by 1.4%, while ETH and SOL each increased by 2.9%. The standout performer was SUI, which surged 15.0%. Could SUI be on track to climb into the top 10 ranking soon? 

Sectors to Watch for Potential Gains

Besides AI and memes, let’s take a look at other sectors which have potential as the market prepares for the next leg up:

Privacy Coins: The rally in privacy-focused assets like ZEC (+34.8%) and XMR (+4.2%) signals growing interest amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny. As anonymity becomes a key focus, these assets may continue to outperform, making them worth monitoring for future momentum shifts.

DeFi: DeFi is showing resilience, with tokens like UNI (+20.25%) and LDO (+6.7%) leading the charge. The revival in DEX activity and liquid staking interest could drive further gains. Positioning in top DeFi projects might offer upside potential as the market recovers.

Layer-1 and Layer-2 Solutions: Gains across L1 and L2 protocols indicate healthy infrastructure activity, with SUI (+15.0%), AVAX (+4.0%), and OP (+6.7%) standing out. These sectors are drawing interest for their scalability solutions and product offerings, providing entry points for investors targeting blockchain tech growth.

Exchange Tokens: Tokens linked to exchanges, such as BGB (+7.9%), GT (+7.6%), and KCS (+3.9%), are benefiting from increased trading activity and platform utility. Keeping an eye on these tokens might be strategic for capitalizing on the expected rise in exchange volume and user activity.

Memes

Memecoins continue to dominate as the top-performing sector in the crypto market, delivering substantial gains across various projects. Leading the surge were MOODENG (+1744.6%), SIGMA (+603.1%), and MINI (+331.0%), showcasing remarkable growth. Other strong performers included SKBDI (+296.5%), PUPS (+169.2%), and HAMMY (+138.5%), demonstrating the ongoing speculative interest in this space.

Memecoins with consistent market presence, like PEPE (+7.5%) and WIF (+17.1%), also saw solid growth, indicating that even established meme assets are benefiting from the sector's momentum. The consistent outperformance of these tokens suggests that retail traders remain heavily engaged in high-risk, high-reward assets, which are driving significant market activity.

Holder Count Surge

Multiple projects showing impressive gains in holder counts. Leading the pack was PEOW (Felix the Laz) on Solana, which saw a massive 1,607.73% surge, reflecting sustained enthusiasm around new memecoins on the network. SWAG MONK on Base followed closely, up 1,399.47%, while FLOPPA also on Base, increased by 536.33%.

These weekly spikes in holder growth highlight the ongoing appetite for speculative assets in the meme sector, with Solana and Base networks emerging as focal points for community engagement. This steady influx of new participants into the meme space signals that traders are actively pursuing high-risk, high-reward opportunities.

Smart Money Moves

The Ethereum ecosystem over the past seven days saw RUSSELL has emerge as a new entry leading with the highest balance ($581.88K). While BITCOIN has made a significant return to the accumulation charts, climbing to the third position with a 66.47% increase, marking its comeback after a long absence from the top 10. Other new entries include SKIBIDI and POCHITA.

WOLF saw a minor dip of -0.36%, while MOODENG experienced a sharp decline of -59.48%. In contrast, established meme coins like DOGE (+27.68%) and PEPE (+0.96%) continued to show steady accumulation. This suggests a diverse accumulation strategy by smart money, targeting both established assets and new, high-risk opportunities.

The Solana ecosystem saw a major selloff in its top tokens by smart money. The leading token, $michi, saw a modest positive accumulation of +4.27%, while mini outperformed with a +10.11% gain. However, the majority of assets saw declines, including MOODENG (-30.87%) and CB (-38.23%), indicating lower interest or profit-taking. Notably, $WIF also dropped by -9.29%, reflecting some sell-off.

The overall trend suggests that while there are still some upward movements, the sentiment appears more cautious, with less aggressive accumulation compared to Ethereum-based assets.

Data Points

Stablecoin Supply Increasing

The steady increase in stablecoin market capitalization signals a bullish shift for the market, with ample liquidity setting the stage for significant price movements. The growing stablecoin supply points to increased capital readiness for risk-taking.

• With stablecoin market cap above $160B, investors are positioning themselves for more substantial moves in the market, as the liquidity suggests readiness for higher trading volumes and potential asset accumulation.

• The divergence between stablecoin growth and BTC's price stagnation indicates that investors are potentially preparing for an upcoming breakout, with capital on standby to capitalize on favorable market conditions.

Market Caution and Deleveraging Signals

The recent stabilization in both open interest and price change suggests that the market may be recalibrating after a period of deleveraging. This could indicate a potential pause in aggressive selling, with traders becoming more cautious about taking on new leverage positions.

• The previous trend showed a clear deleveraging sell-off, but the market has now approached a balanced state where open interest changes are minimal, and price fluctuations are stabilizing.

• This shift could signal a potential setup for a breakout, depending on whether open interest starts increasing alongside a positive price change, which would imply renewed confidence in leveraged positions.

Runes Revive

Many crypto users, even seasoned ones, have overlooked recent developments in the BTC ecosystem. It's understandable—trading BRC-20 tokens and now Runes can be cumbersome compared to the smooth experience of trading on user-friendly ecosystems like Sui, Solana, or Etheruem's L2s. The contrast is stark: while those platforms offer seamless token and meme trading, BTC's processes still feel clunky.

But remember the BRC-20 token PUPS? It languished near zero for months, only to skyrocket to $90 within weeks in April, making some early believers very happy. The next big opportunity could be Runes. Despite mostly flying under the radar, the Rune market has posted impressive gains recently. The top-performing tokens and memes in this space could be the big winners in the next bull market.

While many are chasing meme highs across various ecosystems, it might be wise to explore this overlooked corner of the market and build positions during these quieter times. NFA.

Data suggests that Runes have overwhelmingly surpassed BRC-20s, with momentum picking up again after a relatively quiet September.

You can easily buy these on Magic Eden, which has simplified the process for trading Runes. However, you may need to get familiar with the platform's process. These tickers should help you get started:

• RSIC•GENESIS•RUNE

• DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON

• LIQUIDIUM•TOKEN

• BILLION•DOLLAR•CAT

• PUPS•WORLD•PEACE

• WANKO•MANKO•RUNES

• MR•YEN•JAPANESE•BUSINESSMAN

If any of this is still tricky, remember to join The Coiners! Our experts are available on the platform to answer any questions you might have, anon.

That wraps up today's insights! We hope you enjoyed today’s issue! Till next time anon.