Markets Hold Breath Amid Macro Shifts

GM Anon,

Markets chopped through another volatile week, with Powell’s latest comments on tariffs sparking a brief sell-off across risk assets. Equities and crypto dipped on impact, but price action has since stabilized—suggesting the move was more “sell the news” than the beginning of a major reversal. Bitcoin led the bounce, diving on Powell’s remarks before quickly recovering, and now finds itself reclaiming strength as BTC dominance hits a 4-year high.

Under the hood, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong: hashrate just notched a new all-time high, exchange supply has fallen to record lows, and the BTC/ETH ratio is up nearly 100% year-on-year. 

Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to lag. Daily revenue dropped below $100K—a sign of declining on-chain demand—and price action remains sluggish, with bulls still waiting on that elusive daily W to confirm any upside momentum.

On the altcoin front, HYPE and SOL are leading the Layer 1 rebound. Solana, in particular, is back in form, recording its highest DEX revenue since February and continuing to dominate DeFi volumes. All signs point to a meaningful rotation of both retail and smart money back into the Solana ecosystem.

Powell’s speech also flagged concern over Trump’s escalating tariff policy, which the Fed now sees as more inflationary than expected. Meanwhile, over in Europe, the ECB made its move—cutting interest rates by 25bps to 2.25%—as inflation eases and growth stagnates.

In crypto, headlines continue to dominate sentiment. The SEC is back in court with Binance. Trump’s token faced renewed scrutiny amid a major unlock. And the OM collapse shook confidence in DeFi again as manipulation allegations swirled.

Macro remains messy. Crypto is choppy. But behind the noise, accumulation is underway—and structure is forming.

Let’s get into it.

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TLDR

• Powell Spurs Volatility: Markets dipped after Powell flagged tariff risks but later stabilized. Fed remains on hold.

• ETH ETF Delay: SEC postponed Grayscale’s ETH staking ETF decision to June amid ongoing caution.

• Canada OKs Solana ETFs: First spot SOL ETFs with staking go live in Canada; SOL jumped +23%.

• Solana Leads DeFi: Solana topped DEX volume for 4 days straight with $2.5B+ traded daily.

• BTCfi Lands on Sui: Sui integrates Babylon to unlock BTC staking via LBTC.

• Smart Money Rotates: TIME, FUN, and memecoin gained on Solana; CULT and Mog rose on ETH.

• Mindshare Shifts: TIME led attention; Defiant surged mid-week; memecoin & titcoin held steady.

• Majors Mixed: SOL (+16.8%) and XRP (+4.9%) led; BTC up +3.4%, ETH flat, others modestly green.

• ODINDOG Tanks: Meme coin plunged -61% after a hack and panic sell-off.

Market Overview: TradFi Meets Crypto, ETFs Advance, and DeFi Finds Its Rhythm

This past week in crypto was defined by one major theme: convergence. As institutional finance deepens its relationship with digital assets and infrastructure continues to evolve, we’re seeing meaningful developments across exchanges, DeFi platforms, and ETF products that signal crypto’s transition from speculative frontier to structural pillar in global markets.

One of the most striking moves came from Kraken, which unveiled FX perpetual futures on its Kraken Pro platform—bringing around-the-clock access to fiat pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD. 

These contracts mirror crypto perps: no expiry, up to 20x leverage, and seamless integration into Kraken’s crypto-native UX. It’s a bold step toward a unified multi-asset platform, merging the speed of crypto markets with the depth and familiarity of traditional forex. 

With $5.4B in FX spot volume already recorded on Kraken this year, this expansion reinforces a clear strategic shift. Kraken is no longer just a crypto exchange—it’s vying to become a one-stop shop for digital, fiat, and even equity trading. Recent moves like commission-free U.S. equities and its Mastercard crypto spending integration further support this vision.

Meanwhile, institutional appetite for crypto-based ETFs is heating up globally. Canada made history this week by approving the first spot Solana ETFs via issuers like Purpose Investments and 3iQ. 

What makes these products unique isn’t just the exposure to physical SOL, but the inclusion of staking rewards—giving investors not just price upside, but yield. SOL surged over +23% ahead of the ETF debut, with whales reportedly moving over $100M in capital, signaling serious positioning.

Asia also saw a major milestone as HashKey Capital launched the region’s first institutional XRP fund, supported by Ripple. Designed to offer regulated access to XRP without direct token handling, the fund caters to institutional investors with redemption flexibility and strategic backing. 

Ripple’s involvement also points to a broader expansion into real-world asset tokenization and financial products on the XRP Ledger. This builds on growing momentum globally, with Brazil recently approving its own XRP ETF and multiple U.S. issuers waiting on SEC decisions.

Speaking of the U.S., regulatory gears are turning—slowly. The SEC pushed back its decision on Grayscale’s request to introduce staking into its ETH ETFs, with the new deadline set for June. Staking is allowed in Canadian and Hong Kong ETFs, but remains contentious in the U.S., where concerns about custodianship, taxation, and regulatory classification persist. 

Still, the climate may be shifting. Canary Capital submitted a first-of-its-kind staked TRX ETF application, openly stating staking as a core component from the outset—something no U.S. product has done so far. While approval remains uncertain, the filing shows growing pressure on the SEC to modernize its ETF frameworks.

Beyond ETFs, DeFi is roaring—especially on Solana. The chain saw its DEX volumes far outpacing Ethereum, Base, and BNB. Solana’s TVL has climbed to $7.02B, with protocols like Jito, Kamino, and Jupiter seeing major growth. 

Sanctum alone jumped over 40% in TVL last week. Fee generation is also robust: Raydium pulled in $1.18M in a single day, highlighting strong throughput and network activity.

Importantly, on-chain metrics support this momentum—daily active addresses are back above 4 million, and monthly address count remains steady above 5 million, confirming ecosystem stickiness that few chains can replicate right now.

Meanwhile, Sui Network is making its own power move—integrating Babylon’s trustless Bitcoin staking protocol. This unlocks BTC yield in DeFi, a major milestone for any Layer-1. By minting LBTC via Lombard Protocol, users can now stake BTC on Sui without giving up custody, and deploy that capital across lending, trading, or borrowing dApps. 

The integration includes back-end support from Cubist and SatLayer, setting the stage for Bitcoin-validated services and positioning Sui as a front-runner in the emerging BTCfi space. It’s a strong example of Bitcoin’s evolving role from digital gold to programmable collateral.

But not all news was bullish. In a sharp reminder of crypto’s still-volatile nature, ODINDOG, a memecoin native to the Odin.fun platform, crashed 61% after co-founder Bob Bodily’s account was compromised. 

The incident led to a $178K liquidation of ODINDOG holdings and triggered a cascade of panic selling. The token, which peaked at $1.78 last month, dropped to $0.128—an 89.3% drawdown. The fallout raises concerns about platform security, thin liquidity, and how fast sentiment can reverse in low-cap assets. The incident echoes broader issues across the industry, following other recent breaches like the Bybit $1.4B hack and zkLend’s $4.9M exploit.

In sum, the market is showing signs of maturing infrastructure, rising institutional engagement, and global regulatory divergence. With the ECB cutting rates to 2.25%, macro pressure could ease slightly in the near term, but risk sentiment still hinges on U.S. inflation data, rate expectations, and of course—whatever comes next in the Trump–tariff saga. Amidst this backdrop, we’re seeing serious capital rotate into Solana’s DeFi stack, ETF products gain traction globally, and BTCfi begin to crystalize into a tangible new vertical.

Majors & Memes

Amid ongoing tariff tensions and shifting macro sentiment, crypto majors have delivered mixed but resilient performances this week. Solana stands out with a strong +16.8% gain, likely driven by rising TVL and smart money flows. 

XRP also posted solid upside at +4.9%, continuing to hold its relative strength. Bitcoin reclaimed upward momentum, climbing +3.4% despite rate and bond volatility. BNB and TRX edged higher at +1.4% and +2.3% respectively, while Ethereum remains flat at +0.1%, suggesting hesitation around capital rotation. Dogecoin and Cardano showed marginal gains, with +0.2% and +1.0% respectively. Overall, risk appetite is returning selectively, with Solana clearly leading this week’s rebound.

Mindshare

The past seven days have seen a clear reshuffling of mindshare across the broader crypto landscape. TIME has steadily climbed to the top, finishing the week as the dominant focus among retail participants. Fartcoin, which commanded a strong lead in the early part of the week, saw its momentum taper off after April 14, losing ground to emerging contenders.

Defiant made the most dramatic entrance in the latter half of the week, cutting through the noise to grab a noticeable share of attention—suggesting a late surge in interest or a developing narrative push. Memecoin and titcoin retained a steady mid-tier presence, though their visibility waned slightly toward the end of the week.

Short-lived spikes were observed in tokens like DARK, PVS, and HIBER, but none managed to convert that interest into sustained traction. Meanwhile, tokens such as ALON, $COLLAT, and UFD hovered in the lower ranks throughout, indicating either low visibility or fleeting relevance. House and MTN had a temporary bump midweek before fading, while other names like AGiXT and mxyz never broke into the upper tiers.

Smart Money Accumulation

Smart money activity on Solana this past week shows a modest but telling shift in positioning. Several coins climbed the leaderboard, indicating fresh interest from well-capitalized wallets. Among them, memecoin, TIME, FUN, and SOL emerged as new names, each now held across multiple wallets. While their balances remain relatively low — from $42K in SOL to over $230K in TIME — the fact they’ve entered the top holdings suggests early accumulation is underway.

MLG stood out as the strongest performer among existing names, rising +14.12% on the week to a total value of $58K, likely benefiting from speculative inflows. Fartcoin remains the dominant holding by dollar value at $1.61M, though it saw a slight trim of -1.58%, perhaps just routine rebalancing.

On the other end, DARK took a major hit, dropping over -73%, signaling aggressive distribution. Smaller reductions were also seen in POPCAT and TRUMP, both down slightly, while ALON held flat.

Overall, smart money on Solana is cautiously rotating — locking in profits on older trades while selectively allocating toward newer plays. It’s not a full risk-on shift yet, but positioning is clearly evolving.

Smart money positioning on Ethereum this past week shows a mix of steady conviction and selective rotation. CULT remains the standout with 11 wallet holders and a sizable balance of $548.97K, rising modestly by +1.3% — a sign of continued long-term confidence. 

Meanwhile, Mog posted the most impressive gain, jumping +26.89%, hinting at a fresh wave of accumulation, even though its total balance remains moderate at $85.45K.

Base is for Everyone climbed into the top ranks this week, now held across eight wallets with a balance of $191.32K, suggesting rising visibility and capital commitment behind it.

On the flip side, tokens like JOE and BITCOIN saw drawdowns of -4.62% and -2.37% respectively, possibly reflecting profit-taking or loss cuts after recent moves. SHRUB and PEPE also dipped slightly but still retain significant balances, implying those positions are being monitored but not yet exited.

Elsewhere, MIGGLES showed a healthy +4.95% increase, while VERTAI and DSync held flat, both with relatively strong wallet-level allocations — DSync in particular stands out with $646.80K, the largest balance this week despite no growth.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀