Market Recovery in Anticipation of Inauguration

GM Anon!

What a week it’s been! Many were bracing for BTC to drop to the low $80K range, with some even predicting $70K. And then—just like that—BTC blasted past $100K. Welcome to crypto, where everything can flip in an instant. 

Inflation numbers, coupled with anticipation for the Trump inauguration and bullish news surrounding the incoming administration’s plans, have shifted the market firmly back to risk-on territory. After some hefty pullbacks, many coins and sectors are showing signs of life again.

Before diving into today’s updates, here’s a quick reminder for all Coiners members—and for those who haven’t joined yet—about the exciting competition happening over at Blofin. If you’re not already part of The Coiners community, now’s the perfect time to join for free and get involved. 

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TLDR

• BTC defied bearish predictions, surging past $100K, driven by bullish inflation data and anticipation of the Trump inauguration, markets have shifted back to a risk-on mode

• XRP hit a new all-time high, its first in seven years, overtaking BTC in Google trends, with ETF approval odds now pegged at 70%

• Bitwise reports increasing interest from nation-states in acquiring BTC, highlighting its rising status as a global reserve asset

• The Solana wallet Phantom secured $150M in funding, valuing the company at $3B and reinforcing investor confidence in Web3 infrastructure

• AI agents remain the top-performing sector in crypto, with a collective valuation in the tens of billions. AIXBT, GAME, and VADER lead by market cap

• Total TVL for RWA protocols reached new highs, though Maker has lost much of its first-mover advantage as competition heats up

• Institutional activity grows as Nasdaq applied to list a Litecoin ETF, Swiss bank PostFinance launched ETH staking, and Coinbase restarted BTC-backed loans on Base

• Tether announced plans for cautious U.S. expansion while relocating its HQ to El Salvador, reflecting increasing competition among nations to attract crypto capital

• Smaller wallets (<1 BTC) are accumulating at record rates, adding 17.6K BTC monthly, while short-term holders show resilience, holding through market dips

• The AI narrative is concentrated on Base and Solana, with strong trading volume across DEXs. Virtuals remains a key player despite a pullback since November highs

Week Highlights

The week kicked off with this making waves on crypto Twitter. The long-running inside joke about Jim Cramer’s knack for unintentionally calling market lows and highs appears to remain true.

Big moves are unfolding across the crypto landscape, with Trump’s transition team making headlines by announcing plans to prioritize crypto as a national focus. The administration is gearing up for sweeping reforms, including executive orders on “de-banking” and modernizing crypto accounting policies to better align digital assets with financial regulations. 

This bold approach signals a clear intent to foster a crypto-friendly environment from day one. Meanwhile, Bitwise has reported increasing interest from nation-states in acquiring BTC, highlighting BTC’s growing status as a global reserve asset.

In market news, XRP has surged to a new all-time high, reaching levels not seen in seven years. The token has overtaken BTC in Google search trends as speculation heats up around its ETF approval, with odds now pegged at 70%. 

This momentum comes as major players like Nasdaq also signal confidence in the sector by applying to list a Litecoin ETF, while Wintermute has floated the possibility of a DOGE ETF by 2025.

On the innovation front, Phantom, the popular Solana wallet, has secured $150M in funding, pushing its valuation to an impressive $3B. Coinbase has also restarted BTC-backed loans on its Base platform, further expanding its ecosystem. 

Meanwhile, Tether’s CEO has announced plans for a cautious U.S. expansion while simultaneously relocating its headquarters to El Salvador—a move emblematic of the rising competition among nations to attract crypto capital. Adding to the momentum, Swiss bank PostFinance has launched ETH staking, demonstrating the continued institutional adoption of blockchain technology.

BTC Metrics

Let’s dive into some key BTC metrics.

Smaller wallets holding less than 1 BTC—often called "shrimp wallets"—are on a remarkable accumulation streak, adding 17.6K BTC per month and now holding a record-breaking 1.36 million BTC. This signals growing confidence among smaller holders, even in the face of recent market volatility. 

This kind of widespread accumulation across the spectrum of holders often lays the groundwork for significant market shifts, as more BTC transitions into stronger, longer-term hands. The stage is being set, so hold tight—it’s about to get interesting.

The chart below shows how much BTC short-term holders in loss are sending to exchanges. Big spikes usually mean panic selling during volatile times. But lately, even with market turbulence, these transfers have stayed relatively steady. 

It seems like more short-term holders are holding their ground instead of rushing to sell during dips. This could be a sign of growing confidence and resilience, which might help support BTC’s price stability going forward.

The MVRV Momentum chart shows BTC's Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) ratio compared to its 1-year moving average. Historically, when the MVRV ratio rises above the moving average, it signals strong momentum and often precedes significant price rallies. 

The current positioning suggests BTC remains in an accumulation phase, with plenty of room for growth. The moving average trend also shows stability, so there’s nothing to worry about—momentum looks poised to build as we progress.

General Market Moves

Over the past 7 days, Ethereum led with the highest net inflows, reflecting a noticeable pickup in activity and growing liquidity. In contrast, Arbitrum stood out with the largest outflows, signaling weaker performance during the same period.

The market cap of Runes has dropped to nearly $1B. Is this the start of the ecosystem's permanent decline, or could it be one of the most promising buying opportunities in crypto?

Solana protocols like Raydium, Jito, and Pump have continued to generate consistent fees over the past 30 days, even amid the market pullback. Notably, Raydium has proven to be more profitable than the Ethereum network during this period.

The total TVL of RWA protocols has reached an ATH in 2025. Notably, Maker, which once dominated the market share, has now lost much of its first-mover advantage in this space.

Majors & Memes

Life is returning to the markets, with several major coins and meme projects showing strong signs of recovery and growth. XRP and DOGE are leading the charge among large-cap coins, both posting impressive performances as renewed interest flows into these well-known assets. Beyond these, we’ve seen solid gains from OKB, EOS, LTC, VET, and even FARTCOIN, which has unexpectedly found itself in the spotlight.

In the memecoin world, things are heating up. UFD has stolen the show, hitting a $270M market cap. Other top-performing memes include AGiXT, NFLW, ROSSCOIN, and ARC, with the latter experiencing a notable dip following its Binance perpetual listing. Meanwhile, excitement is brewing around upcoming launches like ANIME, set to debut on January 23rd, and Abstract, which is expected to go live later this month. These new entries are already generating a lot of discussion.

AI agents continue to lead as one of the hottest trends in crypto. AIXBT has doubled its valuation in just two days, climbing to $820M and demonstrating the explosive potential of this sector. Tiered access features are set to roll out soon, adding another layer of functionality and appeal. Other AI agent projects like GRIFFAIN, LORE, ANON, and MOBY have all hit fresh all-time highs within the new DeFAI ecosystem, solidifying their reputation as the current leaders in this innovative space. The rapid development and adoption of these projects suggest that AI-driven assets are carving out a dominant position in the market.

As we move through January, the combination of major coin recoveries, memecoin hype, and the continued rise of AI agents is setting the stage for an exciting start to the year. Keep an eye on these developments—they’re shaping the narrative for 2025.

AI Agents: The New Frontier in Crypto

If you’re new to the crypto world, you might be wondering, “What’s the deal with AI crypto agents?” It’s a fair question—they’ve been the best-performing sector in the space lately, grabbing everyone’s attention.

Let’s break it down. AI crypto agents are essentially algorithms or programs designed to analyze data, execute trades, and even interact with users in ways that mimic human behavior. They’re becoming increasingly advanced, offering features like market insights, portfolio management, and even social media engagement.

Take AIXBT, for example—it’s a great demonstration of the enormous potential these agents hold. Fun fact: AIXBT even generated the tweet below. Gotta admit, it makes a point!

The core idea here is automation and efficiency. AI agents can process massive amounts of data at lightning speed, scanning social media trends, analyzing market sentiment, and executing trades within seconds—tasks humans simply can’t keep up with.

That said, while the potential is huge, separating genuine innovation from AI hype is key. Many of these agents may follow the fate of most memecoins, fading into obscurity.

Still, the evolution of AI agents is well underway. They’re already taking on roles as key opinion leaders (KOLs), streamlining analysis, and changing how traders interact with the markets. But, as with any emerging trend, it’s crucial to stay grounded. Do your research, understand how these tools work, and approach with a balance of excitement and caution.

The future of AI in crypto is undeniably promising, but navigating it wisely is just as important.

Value 

Despite the recent pullback, AI agents bounced back quickly. Their current collective evaluation is already in the tens of billions. With Virtuals and ai16z leading the pack. 

This is only expected to grow, and to be honest, we believe the news announcement  figure below is still understated. The potential here is massive, and the trajectory suggests we’re just scratching the surface. We wouldn’t be surprised if we see this well north of $100B.

Breaking this down even further, the AI agent narrative is concentrated in two main ecosystems, on Solana and Base

The combined trading volume for AI agents on DEXs has been significant. Important to note that the volume listed below excludes Virtuals.

Tokens launched on Virtuals have experienced a pullback since reaching their peak in late November.

Top Coins

The list below highlights the most popular AI agents overall, with the Virtuals ecosystem token currently leading the charge. This compilation includes agents from both the Base and Solana ecosystems. We’ll break these down further on.

Currently the most popular AI agents on Solana can be seen below. Access the list here if it interests you to buy any.

While for Base, you can access the big movers here and view them down below.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀