ETH Renaissance & Base Season

GM Anon!

First off, for everyone who celebrated Thanksgiving, we hope it was a great one—and that you got the recognition you deserve for sticking with blockchain through thick and thin!

This week brought some big developments. AI agents saw explosive growth, and Base season is now in full swing. While BTC hasn’t quite cracked the coveted $100K mark yet, it feels like we’re right on the edge. Meanwhile, ETH seems to be rising from the ashes after a challenging year, signaling a potential major resurgence.

Let’s dive in! 🚀

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TLDR

• AI agents and Base ecosystem boomed, while ETH rebounded

• ETH ETF flows overtook BTC on November 29th, with $320M in inflows led by BlackRock and Fidelity

• BTC exchange reserves hit a 5-year low, signaling reduced sell-side liquidity and potential for explosive price action

• Ethereum’s stablecoin market cap grew by $20B in November

• Base led net flows among blockchains, while Solana entered a cooling phase

• Pumpfun disabled live-streaming after backlash, though Solana DEX activity hit record highs.

• The December 10th Magic Eden airdrop is expected to inject liquidity into Ordinals and Runes, boosting the ecosystem

• DeSci projects are gaining traction as a promising blockchain sector for research and collaboration

• AIxbt and Virtuals Protocol are driving innovation and growth in the Base ecosystem

ETF Flows & Market Metrics

On Friday, November 29th, ETH ETF flows surpassed BTC flows for the first time ever, marking a significant shift in market sentiment. ETH saw $320M in inflows that day, driven by notable contributions from institutional players like BlackRock and Fidelity. This milestone highlights growing interest in ETH, positioning it as a key focus for institutional investment.

An interesting development in BTC’s on-chain activity is the unusual inverse correlation between realized gains and losses—something not typically seen at market peaks. Normally, these metrics move in sync during cycle peaks, reflecting heightened trading activity. However, this time, there’s no spike in cumulative correlation, indicating a shift from traditional patterns.

This data point suggests that the market's peak is still far off. With 9-12 months of potential volatility and chaos ahead, staying engaged and adaptable is crucial. BTC's on-chain dynamics are evolving in new ways, reinforcing the need to remain active in this ever-changing market.

Building on the unusual inverse correlation between realized gains and losses, BTC exchange reserves have now hit their lowest level since 2018, signaling an unprecedented supply shock on the horizon. With fewer coins available on exchanges, sell-side liquidity is drying up rapidly. This creates a setup where even moderate buy-side demand could trigger explosive price movements.

Combine this with the shifting on-chain dynamics and deviations from traditional market cycle behaviors, and it’s clear that the stage is being set for a potentially historic rally. The $100K mark is increasingly looking like a pit stop rather than a final destination. The reduced supply, coupled with sustained demand, could pave the way for significant upside in the months to come, reinforcing the importance of staying positioned in this market.

Moving on, the total stablecoin market cap has surged past $191B, with Ethereum playing a significant role in this growth. Since early November, Ethereum's stablecoin market cap has expanded by nearly $20B, a remarkable increase in such a short time. This sharp rise highlights increasing activity and demand within the Ethereum ecosystem, signaling that momentum is picking up rapidly as the market heats up.

Majors & Memes

The ETH rally is shaping up to be one of the clearest trades this cycle. Despite criticism, ETH’s path to new all-time highs looks increasingly likely. Earlier in the cycle, holding ETH came with a heavy opportunity cost, as stronger performers like SOL or newer assets like SUI outpaced it. However, that dynamic seems to be shifting. 

The ETH/BTC ratio, in particular, has shown resilience during BTC’s recent pullback, hinting at a possible reversal. Last week, this ratio hit its lowest level since early 2021, which could mark a key turning point. Keeping a close eye on these metrics could provide valuable signals for what’s ahead.

Take a look at the insightful tweet below that adds further context to this point on ETH.

In case you missed it, things spiraled completely out of control on Pumpfun with its live-streaming feature, resulting in a chaotic wave of content—most of which is too extreme to describe here. This raises serious questions about whether this behavior reflects growing economic desperation or simply highlights how far some will go in their pursuit of wealth. It’s likely a mix of both.

Amid rising concerns, Pumpfun deactivated the live-streaming feature earlier today following significant backlash. The decision came after users on X speculated that the platform could soon escalate to dangerous extremes, with some even predicting that individuals might resort to life-threatening stunts—or worse—in an effort to gain clout and pump associated tokens. This is not hyperbole; Pumpfun appears to have recognized the grim direction things were heading and acted swiftly to mitigate further chaos.

All the chaos on Pumpfun contributed to Solana reaching new highs in both revenues and volumes. DEX bot trading activity on the network also skyrocketed, reflecting a surge in speculative activity and reinforcing Solana’s dominance in this market cycle.

Coupled with Phantom climbing to the top of the app store rankings, Solana saw a significant increase in daily active users

Base Szn

As is often the case in crypto, capital rotates swiftly, and the recent Solana frenzy appears to be entering a cooling phase. This shift opens the door for fresh narratives and ecosystems to take center stage. Let’s delve into some potential emerging hubs of activity that could become the focus of the market’s attention in the coming weeks.

The data highlights substantial inflows into Base over the past month, with the chain leading net flows by a significant margin. This surge underscores Base's growing dominance and increased activity, as it outpaces other major ecosystems. Meanwhile, Solana, which has been a frontrunner in recent months, is showing signs of cooling off, with relatively smaller net inflows. This trend suggests that capital is rotating into Base as it continues to attract attention, while Solana takes a temporary breather from its recent momentum.

Base is seeing active addresses substantially pick up again.

With Phantom's latest update, Base is now easily accessible to many active in the Solana ecosystem. This integration allows seamless token swaps, access to DeFi and NFTs, and the ability to buy ETH and USDC on Base, bridging the two ecosystems for greater participation.

Here’s a list of tokens that smart money investors have recently accumulated, according to Nansen.

The recent surge in activity on the Base blockchain is being fueled by innovative projects like Virtuals Protocol. This platform focuses on enabling the creation, co-ownership, and monetization of on-chain AI agents, particularly within gaming and entertainment. Virtuals makes it easy for users to develop AI agents through a staking mechanism, allowing these agents to function across various applications while generating revenue shared among token holders.

This approach democratizes access to AI technology and promotes community-driven development. Notably, some of the biggest projects launched on Virtuals include AI-driven gaming characters and entertainment-focused agents, showcasing the protocol's versatility and potential to redefine the on-chain AI landscape. Virtuals has become a key player in Base's expansion, driving significant interest and growth in the ecosystem.

AIXBT, an AI-driven crypto market intelligence platform launched on the Base blockchain, has quickly become one of the most popular AI agents, capturing the largest share of mindshare in the space. Leveraging advanced narrative detection and alpha-focused analytics, AIXBT provides users with valuable insights into market trends, solidifying its position as a leader in the emerging AI agent ecosystem.

DeSci

A major narrative currently gaining traction is DeSci (Decentralized Science). This sector holds significant growth potential and could see substantial expansion as the narrative evolves. While it may not be receiving as much attention as other areas of the market, securing strategic entries could yield impressive returns. Below is a list of the largest projects in the DeSci space. To stay updated, follow this dashboard: DeSci Dashboard on CoinGecko.

Ordinals and Runes

The Ordinals and Runes ecosystem recently experienced a brief rally, highlighting its potential even as momentum quickly cooled off. Currently, these assets are trending downward; however, with the highly anticipated Magic Eden airdrop scheduled for December 10th, liquidity is expected to flow into the ecosystem. Notably, Runes and Ordinals collectors are set to receive substantial rewards from this airdrop, significantly more than participants in other ecosystems, positioning this sector for a major boost.

This ecosystem is shaping up to be one of the most compelling narratives for 2025. The high-friction nature of the market has limited over-dilution, creating a fertile ground for growth. Key projects with small market capitalizations have already started to emerge, yet they remain largely under the radar, presenting unparalleled upside potential.

Smart Money Accumulation

To wrap things up for today, let’s dive into some smart money holdings as tracked by ChainEDGE. The Ethereum meme ecosystem is heating up again after a quiet period, with most of the action previously focused on Solana. Smart money is rotating back into Ethereum and Base ecosystems, with tokens like SHRUB, SBR, and WOLF seeing notable gains. Notably, Base coins like SPEC, FAI, and SIMMI entered the accumulation charts this week, signaling growing interest in emerging projects within the Base ecosystem alongside Ethereum's resurgence.

The Solana ecosystem appears to be undergoing a period of selloff rather than accumulation this week. Tokens like CHILLGUY and FATHA saw significant declines, with CHILLGUY dropping over 20% and FATHA experiencing a sharp 42% decrease. While there was some modest accumulation in tokens such as LUCE (+10.3%) and MOODENG (+1.75%), the overall trend leans toward profit-taking and reduced exposure. This activity signals a shift in sentiment within the Solana ecosystem, with less focus on aggressive accumulation compared to previous weeks.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀