Bulls Are Back

GM Anon!

It’s been a chaotic but electric week in crypto. While BTC, ETH, and SOL held steady, pockets of the market ignited in a big way. ETF speculation came roaring back, AI agents saw runaway gains, Ripple made a $5B bid to shake up the stablecoin sector—and Celsius staged a shocking return from the dead. Narratives are driving flows again, and the bulls? They’re definitely back.

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TLDR

• BTC Starts New Cycle: Bitcoin enters week four of a fresh 15-week cycle, supported by $1B in ETF inflows, bullish technicals, and whale accumulation exceeding $4B over two weeks.

• Ripple’s Circle Bid Rejected: Ripple made a $5B offer to acquire USDC issuer Circle—rejected as too low—as stablecoin competition intensifies ahead of Circle’s IPO ambitions.

• Celsius Soars 83%: CEL rallied after the DOJ called for a 20-year sentence for ex-CEO Mashinsky, fueling speculative flows despite thin liquidity and weak fundamentals.

• AI Agent Tokens Lead Alts: Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) surged 138% this week, part of a broader AI agent rally with VaderAI, Luna, and aixCB all posting double/triple-digit gains.

• ETF Mania Spreads: 21Shares filed for a spot SUI ETF, triggering a 9% rally. Cardano's ETF odds climbed to 75%, with whales adding $289M in ADA during April.

• Solana Rotation Heats Up: SOL’s DeFi metrics rebounded, with DEX volume exceeding 200% of Ethereum’s and token launches accelerating—especially around meme coins and new narratives.

• Arbitrum Attracts Liquidity: Arbitrum led all chains in net inflows at $59.8M, driven by protocols like Hyperliquid and Ostium—despite broader flat flows on Base, ETH, and Polygon.

• Smart Money Splits by Chain: Solana smart money rotated into Fartcoin, House, and AGiXT, while Ethereum saw modest DOGE and COCORO inflows, with outflows from Mog and SHRUB.

Bitcoin Bulls Stir as ETFs, Whale Buys, and On-Chain Signals Align

Bitcoin is entering a fresh phase of bullish momentum, with multiple indicators suggesting the start of a new leg higher. Veteran analyst Bob Loukas confirmed the beginning of a new weekly cycle—now four weeks in—following a prolonged correction. If historical patterns hold, BTC could remain in a 15-week uptrend through the summer, as long as it holds the critical $74,000 support.

ETF demand has come roaring back. Net inflows hit nearly $1 billion last week, led by heavyweights like BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. Over a nine-day stretch, spot ETFs absorbed more than $4 billion in capital—an unprecedented pace outstripping new BTC issuance 11-to-1. This surge, coming after a quieter Q1, signals renewed institutional conviction.

Whale accumulation further supports the case: more than 43,000 BTC—worth roughly $4 billion—was scooped up in just two weeks, lifting whale holdings to 3.54 million BTC. On-chain analytics also flashed a bullish signal, as Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio formed a rare “golden cross” with its 365-day moving average—an event that has historically preceded major rallies.

In short, the setup is strong—but not yet explosive. If ETF inflows continue and Bitcoin breaks convincingly above $95K, the stage could be set for a fresh run toward six figures. Until then, the market appears to be coiling—quietly gearing up for what could be the next big move.

Ripple Power Play

Ripple just made a major move in the stablecoin wars—and got turned down. The company reportedly offered $4–$5 billion to acquire Circle, the issuer behind USDC, in a bid to fast-track its dominance in the space. 

The offer was rejected as too low, according to Bloomberg sources, but the attempt itself marks a clear shift in Ripple’s strategy as it ramps up efforts to compete with Tether and other stablecoin leaders.

Circle, which recently filed confidentially for an IPO, appears focused on achieving a much higher valuation through public markets. With USDC commanding a $62 billion market cap—second only to USDT—it’s a crown jewel in crypto’s financial plumbing. Ripple’s own stablecoin, RLUSD, has just passed the $317 million mark, making the acquisition bid a bold effort to bridge that gap overnight.

This isn’t Ripple’s first aggressive play. The company also spent $1.25 billion acquiring prime brokerage firm Hidden Road and has publicly said it's not eyeing an IPO but is actively pursuing acquisitions. The failed Circle deal shows it’s serious about owning the infrastructure of crypto finance—from payments to liquidity to stablecoins.

While a second offer hasn’t been confirmed, it can’t be ruled out. As stablecoins continue to take center stage in cross-border payments and tokenized finance, Ripple’s ambitions—and the battle for dominance—are only just getting started.

Market Data Points

Over the past month, Solana has clearly continued to led the pack in new token launches, accounting for the majority of new trading tokens across all chains. Activity on Base has cooled slightly but remains the second most active network for new deployments. Other chains like Ethereum, BNB, and Polygon continue to see steady but significantly lower levels of token creation.

TVL on Sui has seen a strong uptick recently, rising to $2.14 billion. This move marks a clear breakout from the multi-week stagnation we saw in March and early April. Alongside the rising TVL, on-chain metrics are surging: 24-hour DEX volume hit $437.6 million, perp volume is near $46.4 million, and app revenue is climbing above $200K daily.

Solana’s weekly DEX volume as a percentage of Ethereum's has surged again, crossing 200% after a brief lull—signaling renewed momentum in Solana's DeFi activity. While January 2025 marked a historic spike above 500%, the latest rebound suggests capital rotation back into Solana-based protocols, likely driven by new launches and increased retail flow.

Capital rotation this week leaned heavily toward Arbitrum, which posted a leading $59.8M in net inflows—driven by over $212M in deposits and just $152M in outflows.

The surge reflects growing demand for Arbitrum-based infrastructure, with protocols like Hyperliquid and Ostium attracting traders and liquidity through low-fee, high-performance environments. While most other chains saw flat or negative flows—including Ethereum, Base, and Polygon—Lately, Arbitrum continues to stand out as a magnet for new on-chain activity.

Majors & Memes

While majors like BTC, ETH, and SOL hovered in tight ranges this week, select altcoin sectors roared to life—led by the AI agent narrative, ETF speculation, and legal drama-fuelled volatility.

The standout was Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL), which exploded 138% over the week and over 400% since early April. The AI-focused platform now sits near $1.82, with key breakouts confirmed across technicals. 

Subtokens like VaderAI (+141%), Luna (+83%), and aixCB (+204%) joined the party, suggesting broader capital rotation into agent-linked assets. Trading volume surged past $540M across the ecosystem, but fundamentals remain murky—daily revenue and new agent creation are stagnant, raising questions about sustainability.

Meanwhile, Celsius (CEL) came back from the dead. The token soared 83% following news that U.S. prosecutors are seeking a 20-year prison sentence for former CEO Alex Mashinsky. 

CEL broke past its 200-day SMA before cooling at $0.13, with momentum traders eyeing $0.18–$0.25 as potential resistance. Thin liquidity and court headlines—not fundamentals—appear to be driving this reflexive rally.

On the regulatory front, ETF hype returned in force. SUI climbed 9% after 21Shares filed for a U.S. spot ETF tied to the token, listing Coinbase as custodian. SUI is now trading well above key EMAs, with over $1.7B in daily volume and a clear reclaim of prior resistance zones.

Cardano (ADA) joined the conversation as Bloomberg analysts raised approval odds on a spot ETF to 75%. On-chain, whales added 420M ADA ($289M) in April, supporting the bullish case—but network usage continues to slide.

Memecoins are also stirring. SHIB has quietly built a base above its 21-day EMA, with RSI rising and historical May price patterns hinting at a potential push toward $0.00001850. It’s still early, but traders are watching for signs of a broader Ethereum-based meme rotation.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) rounded out the week’s winners, climbing nearly 55% in April and holding above $21. Momentum indicators remain strong, but overextension could limit short-term upside unless bulls can cleanly flip $24.10. Coupled with this price momentum, Hyperliquid is dominating perp volumes.

All in all, this week confirmed one thing: the market is hunting for momentum. Whether it's AI agents, ETF bids, or courtroom drama, narratives are back in control—and traders are responding accordingly.

Mindshare

Over the past 7 days in the Solana ecosystem, token mindshare has seen some notable shifts—with a few dominant names clearly standing out in attention and traction.

House has remained a consistent leader throughout the week, commanding a large chunk of attention across most days. It’s been one of the most talked-about and watched tokens in Solana.

Fartcoin continues to live up to the hype, holding steady across the chart with a thick layer of attention from April 25 through May 1. While it dips a bit near the end of the week, it still retains strong visibility.

Hosico and gork also held impressive territory for most of the week. Both saw steady mindshare with only brief fluctuations, suggesting that these projects are maintaining community interest and engagement.

Interestingly, Boopa and Boop began to surface more noticeably near the end of the chart, particularly around May 1–2. This could signal emerging traction or a narrative rotation into newer or lower-cap tokens.

Toward the bottom of the stack, there’s been a flurry of niche or low-float tokens like TRENCHER, GENZ, Anon, and LetsBONK, which held brief attention spikes but struggled to maintain mindshare consistently across the week.

Smart Money Accumulation

Smart money flows in the Solana ecosystem this past week show a clear resurgence in risk appetite, with capital rotating into both established meme plays and newly emerging tokens.

Fartcoin continues to dominate the leaderboard, with holdings up 5.3% over the week and total smart wallet exposure now exceeding $3.27M. It's not just holding its ground—it’s still the biggest conviction bet across the board.

House and LAUNCH... are picking up serious momentum too, with holdings up 34.6% and 68.5%, respectively. These aren't just passive allocations—this is real capital chasing narrative-driven upside and early access positioning.

AGiXT was the most aggressive mover, with smart money holdings skyrocketing 71.9%. Meanwhile, tokens like gork, Hosico, and BOOP show no weekly percentage change data (NP), but they still account for millions in holdings. 

Overall, the rotation in Solana continues. Smart money is back on offense—scaling into community-led tokens, sniffing out momentum before retail catches up, and proving that conviction is anything but dead.

Smart money activity in the Ethereum ecosystem this week shows a more mixed, cautious stance compared to the risk-on rotation seen in Solana. Accumulation is still happening—but it's more selective, with some tokens seeing sharp outflows while others quietly build.

DOGE saw the biggest jump in interest, with a 27.8% increase in smart wallet holdings and nearly $100K in total allocation. It’s not a massive dollar amount, but the relative growth suggests DOGE meme is back on the radar—possibly as a meme revival play or rotation hedge.

COCORO also stood out, with smart money allocations climbing over 47% this week. While the total exposure remains modest at $64K, the growth rate signals strong conviction from a small but active group of wallets.

On the flipside, names like Mog and SHRUB were hit hard, with holdings down 30.2% and 10% respectively. That’s clear trimming behavior, likely profit-taking or capital rotating elsewhere.

Interestingly, PEPE—despite holding a massive $22.3M in smart money—was completely flat, rising just 0.03%. That suggests it's more of a long-term position than an active buy zone right now.

Tokens like CULT, BOBO, and MOONKIN all saw minor pullbacks, but nothing too aggressive.

In summary: Ethereum’s smart money is cautious but not inactive. There’s light accumulation in select names like DOGE and COCORO, while other positions are being trimmed back. It’s a week of positioning—not chasing.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀