BTC Rips & Gensler Hints At Exit

GM anon!

BTC is hitting new ATHs almost every few days, marking a shift into a fresh market phase where things are looking easier—but that doesn’t mean it’s time to throw caution to the wind. While the market environment is indeed lighter compared to recent months, high leverage or dabbling in meme coins can still bring swift, brutal pullbacks that tend to come out of nowhere and bounce back just as quickly. Stay sharp!

Let’s dive into where we stand and the key events that defined this week!

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TLDR

• U.S. inflation ticked up to 2.6% YoY in October, ending its cooling streak, though Fed rate cuts in December are still possible

• BTC's correlation with gold hit an 11-month low as BTC surged 20% post-election, while gold dropped 5%, signaling a shift in investor sentiment

• SEC Chair Gary Gensler hinted at leaving amid Trump's campaign promises to remove him

• ADA and other recognizable coins surged, driven by retail traders re-entering the market, as crypto apps like Coinbase topped download charts

• ETH spot ETFs saw over $500M in inflows last week, coinciding with a price rally to 3-month highs, signaling renewed institutional interest

• High funding rates and concentrated leveraged positions around $75K for BTC could trigger sharp moves up or down, with liquidations looming

• As BTC hit new all-time highs, SUI, ADA, NEAR, APT, and XRP saw significant gains, highlighting market-wide bullish sentiment

• Stablecoin supply increased by $5B in the past week, reflecting growing liquidity and confidence in the market

Macro

The latest CPI report shows U.S. inflation rising to 2.6% year-over-year in October, up from 2.4% in September, ending its recent cooling trend. Month-over-month, prices rose by 0.2%, while core inflation held steady at 3.3% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month. 

Key drivers included increased prices in used cars and airfares, while energy and food prices offered some relief. Despite this slight uptick, economists believe the Fed may still be on track to cut interest rates in December, as inflation remains close to its lowest point since early 2021.

BTC's correlation with gold has reached an 11-month low, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment following the U.S. presidential election. While gold prices have dropped by 5%, BTC has surged over 20%, suggesting capital is moving away from traditional safe havens like gold and into digital assets. 

The stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields, spurred by anticipated inflationary policies under President-elect Trump, have also dampened gold's appeal. This market shift has led some to speculate that the Fed might slow its rate-cutting cycle in response to inflationary pressures, with the likelihood of a December rate cut dropping to 65%.

Lastly, SEC Chair Gary Gensler recently hinted at a possible departure from his role, following President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign promise to remove him. In a reflective speech, Gensler highlighted his achievements, including new disclosure rules for data breaches and executive pay transparency, alongside structural changes in securities and stock transaction settlements. 

Known for his stringent stance on crypto regulation, Gensler defended his actions to regulate unregistered crypto offerings, stating they were necessary to protect investors. Although he didn’t officially announce his resignation, his tone suggested he may be preparing to exit the SEC soon.

Retail Returns

When forgotten coins like Cardano see a huge pump, it's a clear sign that retail investors are re-entering the market. Cardano is one of those coins that many retail traders recognize and hope will be the next 100x opportunity. 

Sentiment for ADA hit a low earlier this year but has since surged dramatically, even surpassing ETH and BTC recently.

Search interest in crypto has surged, and BTC is seeing renewed attention. However, with BTC now seeming out of reach for many retail investors, it's likely they’ll turn to meme coins and smaller, high-risk tokens instead, heading straight to the memecasino.

Crypto trading apps like Coinbase are now topping app store charts, showing a surge in retail interest. This trend reflects growing mainstream attention and a potential influx of new traders entering the market, as seen in the graph below. Keep an eye on the Base ecosystem and its memes during this period.

ETFs & BTC Metrics

ETH ETFs are seeing a major influx of funds lately, signaling a big shift in investor interest. Just last week, over $500M poured into ETH spot ETFs, with some of the biggest contributions coming from major players like Fidelity and BlackRock. This surge coincides with ETH’s recent price rally, pushing it to levels we haven’t seen in over three months.

This week also saw Blackrock’s BTC ETF hit a record.

Moving onto key BTC metrics,

The liquidation maps shows a heavy concentration of leveraged positions around the $75K price level. This means a lot of traders have built up leverage in this range, which could create a "pressure zone" for the price. If BTC moves significantly in either direction, it could trigger liquidations for these positions.

If BTC breaks upward, we could see a rapid move, potentially pushing toward the $100K level as shorts get liquidated, fueling more buying. However, if there’s a pullback, the high leverage could trigger a cascade of long liquidations, leading to a sharp downward move.

Funding rates are climbing near multi-month highs, it indicates a heavy bias toward long positions as BTC's price continues to rise. However, elevated funding rates can be a double-edged sword: while they show strong demand to go long, they also signal the potential for a leveraged market. If the price reverses, the high funding rate could lead to rapid liquidations, amplifying a downward move.

Lastly, the chart below shows we’re in a Leveraged Rally for BTC, with both price and open interest climbing. It’s a sign of strong buying momentum backed by leverage, which can fuel even bigger moves up. But with so much leverage, there's also a risk: if the price turns, liquidations could hit fast.

Majors

As BTC hit new all-time highs this week, the momentum rippled across the broader crypto market, with several major altcoins surging alongside it. Sui broke into new territory with its TVL hitting an all-time high of $1.374B, showcasing its growing prominence in the DeFi sector. ADA also capitalized on the market’s bullish sentiment, climbing steadily amid its continued focus on scalability and real-world adoption, likely also driven by retail interest. NEAR (TVL $257M) gained traction as its developer-friendly features and ecosystem expansion attracted fresh interest. Aptos saw its TVL run to just over $1B, driven by its nascent and growing DeFi ecosystem. Meanwhile, XRP remained a standout performer, buoyed by optimism surrounding its ongoing legal battles which seem to be coming to an end and increasing utility in cross-border payments. 

In addition to altcoin gains, other key trends emerged. Binance staked ETH nearly doubled since mid-2024, though Lido’s market share has seen a gradual decline

On a macro level, stablecoin supply surged by approximately $5B over the past week, signaling renewed liquidity and investor confidence.

Memes

DEX bot trading volumes which are used mostly for meme trading have been heating up steadily throughout November.

ACT surged by 2630.3% and PNUT by 1522.4% after being listed on Binance, while major memes like PEPE gained 105.8% following its listing on Robinhood. Dogecoin also saw significant gains, fueled by hype around Elon Musk and his new role in the Department of Government Efficiency, with both Doge and the coin D.O.G.E benefiting from the momentum.

In Solana’s smart money holdings, there was some profit-taking for LUCE, Popcat, CENTS, and Shoggoth. Meanwhile, holdings for Wif increased, and new arrivals like HFC, LESTER, and Banana climbed in popularity this week.

While the Solana meme ecosystem has outpaced Ethereum memes in terms of volume, there has been notable accumulation in the Ethereum space recently. Noteworthy examples include SHRUB and DOGE, with $6.78M and $4.89M in smart money allocations, respectively.

A few weeks ago on The Coiners, we dove deep into AI memes and highlighted several coins with potential. Since then, many have skyrocketed to new heights, including GOAT, ACT, and FARTCOIN. Don’t miss out—join The Coiners today, it’s free!

Be careful and stay sharp out out there anon, we’re in uncharted territory and the bull market proper has just started!