BTC ATH, Then Crash

GM Anon!

What a week it’s been! BTC soared past $108K, only to crash hard following the FOMC meeting. Over $1T was wiped from the stock market, and the crypto markets saw hundreds of millions in liquidations. While the Fed delivered the expected 25 BPS rate cut, their hawkish outlook for 2025 spooked investors, triggering a cascade of sell-offs. Interestingly, Powell also addressed the Fed’s ability to own BTC which he elaborated is not possible currently. 

That said, many indicators had been flashing red for weeks, signaling a pullback was on the horizon. We’ve been covering those very indicators here and in detail on The Coiners. Speaking of which—have you joined yet? If not, now’s the time.

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Let’s get to it and break down what’s been happening!

TLDR

• BTC reached $108K before crashing post-FOMC, wiping $1T from stocks and seeing significant crypto liquidations

• Current conditions resemble late 2016/2020—pullbacks before explosive bull runs in following years

• ETH is outperforming SOL, which has weakened since November. ETH remains the preferred major until it hits new ATHs

• Large outflows mirror bearish short-term sentiment, but $10B+ in USDT inflows and $7.5B in BTC inflows suggest preparation for repositioning

• Beam Nodes offer strong potential with $420M in assets backing rewards. Early buyers could benefit from upcoming 3x price hike and future transferability in Q1 2025

• FARTCOIN surged past $1B market cap. Other notable gains include HYPE (+53%), ENA (+20.7%), and VIRTUAL (+10.85%) over the last 7 days

• CULT, ME, FUEL, and PENGU may follow the pattern of 2020’s defining airdrops. HYPE stands out with ATHs and a Hyperliquid TVL surge of 269%

• FTM surged 50% over the past 30 days, driven by the Sonic mainnet launch and its points program, signaling ecosystem momentum for 2025

• Linea could launch with a $500M-$1B market cap and strong zk-rollup tech. Success hinges on ecosystem growth and effective tokenomics

Market Moves

The market appears to be mirroring the December periods of 2016 and 2020—right before the explosive years of 2017 and 2021, respectively. Data suggests that this bull market is just getting started. While the short-term outlook might feel like doom and gloom, it’s essential to zoom out. December 2016 and 2020 saw similar pullbacks just before life-changing rallies kicked off.

In summary: DO NOT GET SHAKEN OUT OF YOUR BAGS.

Also, be cautious about trying to trade these moves unless you have a highly developed and battle-tested system. The risk of missing parabolic moves far outweighs the reward of squeezing out a few percentage points of gains. Additionally, avoid excessive leverage—volatility is increasing, as evidenced by this week’s action.

In just a few days, we’ll likely shoot past $108K again, and this pullback will feel like a distant memory. Stay focused, stay patient, and keep your eyes on the bigger picture!

Here's a quick update on crucial ratios: After a solid rally, the ETH/BTC ratio has pulled back sharply once again.

When evaluating which major to hold between ETH and SOL, current data suggests that ETH is now the preferable choice. The SOL/ETH ratio, which demonstrated exceptional strength from July to November, has since weakened considerably. Another option to consider is SUI, which, while lacking in historical performance compared to ETH, could form an interesting pair for trades in conjunction with ETH.

While SOL might reclaim the spotlight at some point, for now, ETH appears to be the stronger trade. Until ETH reaches new all-time highs, it remains the preferred major for positioning.

Moving on to ETF flows, there isn’t much to report, aside from substantial outflows that reflect the current short-term bearish sentiment in the market. These outflows align with the broader cautious tone among investors during this period of heightened volatility.

Meanwhile, there has been a substantial surge in USDT inflows to exchanges, exceeding $10B, alongside a sharp increase in BTC inflows reaching approximately $7.5B. Such high inflows to exchanges often suggest potential selling pressure as traders move funds, both in stablecoins and BTC, onto platforms, likely preparing to realize profits or manage positions.

The significant USDT inflows further highlight a shift towards liquidity deployment, possibly in response to volatility or market uncertainty. Meanwhile, ETH inflows remain muted, hovering below $2.5B, suggesting that ETH is experiencing less immediate selling activity.

Beam Nodes Alpha: Why They’re Worth Watching

Beam is a rapidly growing blockchain gaming network powered by the Merit Circle DAO. One of its standout features is the Beam Node, a critical component for securing the network and enabling key operations. These nodes are becoming increasingly popular among blockchain enthusiasts and investors, and here’s why they’re worth your attention.

What Makes Beam Nodes Special?

1. Substantial Asset Backing
   Beam has secured $420M in assets across its treasury, an Abu Dhabi gaming fund, and an AI compute fund. A significant portion of these assets—potentially 25% or more—is set to be distributed to node operators. This could mean upwards of $100M in rewards for those running Beam Nodes.

2. Transferability and Future Value
   Starting Q1 2025, with the Horizon upgrade, Beam Nodes will become transferable. This means owners can trade or sell their nodes, providing liquidity and adding to their intrinsic value. With the upcoming price hike from $1,250 to $3,750 per node, early buyers could see a 3x increase in value even before nodes become transferable.

3. Built-in Value Support
   Nodes are expected to have a floor value as their worth will likely be tied to Beam’s treasury holdings. At the full price of $3,750 per node and the projected total supply of 26,666 nodes, the cumulative value would align with the $100M asset base, ensuring solid backing.

4. Strong Ecosystem Growth
   Beam’s gaming ecosystem is expanding rapidly with initiatives like the BeamAI division and its strategic partnerships. This growth increases the likelihood of significant future returns for node operators as the network scales.

Why Now Is the Time to Act

The window to purchase Beam Nodes at the current price of $1,250 is closing fast, with less than five days remaining before the cost triples to $3,750. Early buyers not only lock in a lower price but also position themselves for potential short-term flips and long-term rewards as Beam’s ecosystem grows.

If you’re considering adding a Beam Node to your portfolio, now is a strategic moment to act. Use this link to learn more and receive a 5% discount on your purchase.

Majors & Memes

Overall, the market has been relatively subdued following BTC’s pullback. However, several tokens have stood out with notable action over the last 7 days. Highlights include HYPE (+53%), ENA (+20.7%), and VIRTUAL (+10.85%).

The star of the show, however, has been FARTCOIN, which broke the $1B market cap ceiling. Could this become one of the major meme coins of 2025? It’s looking very possible. Its memetic appeal is clearly catching on, with users piling in—including smart money investors. FARTCOIN is shaping up to be a strong contender in the evolving meme token landscape.

Airdrops

Let’s move on to the major airdrops that have recently taken place: CULT, ME, FUEL, and PENGU. While these tokens have seen significant pullbacks since their launches, it’s important to recognize a familiar pattern from the past. For those who were active in 2020, the airdrops that defined that bull run—such as UNI—were distributed just before the parabolic moves of 2021.

With strong communities forming around these tokens and bullish price action anticipated for 2025, CULT, ME, FUEL, and especially PENGU, could play pivotal roles in this cycle. For long-term holders, these coins are poised to become integral features of the evolving market landscape.

This potential is underscored by ChainEDGE data on PENGU, which shows that while smart wallets have sold off a significant portion, over 40 wallets continue to hold, with smart money holdings valued at nearly $8M. This indicates ongoing confidence from influential market participants, even in the face of recent price declines.

Among the recent airdrops, however, one clear standout emerges: HYPE. Unlike others, HYPE has been setting new all-time highs, supported by a rapidly growing ecosystem on Hyperliquid. Its performance makes it a notable exception in a market where most airdrops have faced declining prices.

TVL on Hyperliquid has surged by 269% over the past 7 days, reaching $2.21B.

The ecosystem has been gaining strong momentum and is now primed to become one of the main centers of activity as we move into 2025, solidifying its position as a key player in the evolving crypto landscape.

FTM has surged by 50% over the past 30 days, driven by the launch of Sonic’s mainnet and its accompanying Sonic Points program. The FTM ecosystem will be one to watch closely in 2025, as it continues to expand and innovate.

Lastly, it appears that the long-awaited OpenSea airdrop might finally be on the horizon. Rumored and anticipated since the 2021 bull market, this potential airdrop could mark a significant moment for the platform.

OpenSea, despite being one of the first movers in the NFT space, has surprisingly lost a significant share of the market to its competitors. Could the rumored airdrop be the catalyst to reignite interest in the platform and help it reclaim its former dominance? 

Only time will tell, but it’s certainly one to watch—especially if you’ve used the platform in the past, as you might qualify for the airdrop once the criteria are finalized.

Now, let’s dive into one of 2025’s most exciting airdrops and see how it stacks up against similar airdrops.

Linea: A Promising L2 with Airdrop Potential

Linea is generating excitement as one of the most anticipated L2 projects, with its token airdrop rumored for early 2025. To help users maximize this opportunity, the latest Coiners report provides a comprehensive guide to qualifying for the airdrop and dives deep into its market potential.

By joining the Coiners community, you’ll gain access to the full report along with support from experienced researchers and traders who can guide you through every step.

Linea’s Market Outlook

With the success of Arbitrum and Optimism paving the way, Linea could become a strong contender in the L2 landscape. Its initial market cap is estimated to land between $500M and $1B, aligning it with zkSync and Starknet. Depending on its tokenomics, its fully diluted valuation (FDV) could range from $2.5B to $6B.

However, like other L2 projects, Linea will face challenges. A high circulating supply at launch could create significant sell pressure, as seen with Blast, which dropped 62.5% shortly after launch. Managing supply effectively—limiting it to 20-25%—will be critical for price stability and avoiding sharp declines.

Long-Term Potential

In the long term, Linea could emulate the success of Arbitrum and Optimism, which achieved market caps of $4.1B and $3.3B, respectively, through DeFi adoption and governance-driven growth. If Linea drives strong ecosystem development and DeFi activity, its price could climb to $1.50 to $2.00 in the medium-to-long term. Conversely, weak adoption could see it stagnate below $1.

Risk vs Reward

For traders, Linea offers opportunities across timeframes:

• Short-Term: Post-airdrop volatility is expected, with prices likely ranging from $0.50 to $0.80.

• Mid-Term: Successful ecosystem growth could push its market cap into the $1B-$2B range, with prices approaching $1.50 to $2.00.

• Long-Term: Linea’s ability to secure strong fundamentals will determine its position in the competitive L2 landscape.

Final Thoughts

Linea stands out for its innovative zk-rollup technology and potential to combine the best of its predecessors. The opportunity for traders and investors lies in its early adoption phase, which could position Linea as a dominant L2 in the coming years.

For the full report, including actionable steps to qualify for the airdrop and exclusive insights, join the Coiners community by clicking the button below!

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you the week after next!